Editorial 1 : An outdated nuclear debate
Introduction: The debate on Pakistan and nuclear weapons in the Indian elections might have generated much heat but it has shed little light on Delhi’s emerging nuclear challenges. Nuclear factors have returned to the top of the agenda in the competitive calculus among major powers as well as in key regional theatres like Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Nuclear energy is also back on the civilian radar as the challenges of managing climate change become acute each year.
The debate over nuclear arsenal in India has declined from 1990s
- There was intense debate in Delhi during the 1990s on the formal acquisition of a nuclear arsenal.
- It was followed by an all-consuming focus on the terms of reconciliation with the global nonproliferation order under the historic civil nuclear initiative with the US during the 2000s.
- Since then, there has been little public and political interest in matters nuclear.
The world is nearing a nuclear showmanship
- At the global level, the UN warned a few weeks ago that the world is drifting back to potential nuclear war amid the mounting tensions between the US and Europe on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other.
- The Ukraine war in Europe and the Russian rattling of the nuclear sabre are compelling the West to rethink the deterrence dynamic.
- Strengthening NATO’s nuclear and conventional forces in Europe, greater collaboration between France and Britain (the two European nuclear powers), and building an independent Eurodeterrent under French leadership are some of the ideas that are being explored.
- China’s assertiveness and the fear of American isolationism under a potential second term for Donald Trump are nudging Beijing’s Asian neighbours to reconsider their atomic abstinence.
- For now, Japan and South Korea are negotiating steps to strengthen the American nuclear umbrella; but if Trump wins in November, the debate on national nuclear arsenals is likely to become more serious in North East Asia.
- In the Middle East, regional fears about Iran’s emergence as a nuclear weapon power are intensifying the Arab quest for expanded atomic capabilities of their own.
- Civil nuclear technological cooperation is reported to be an important part of the security pact being negotiated between Saudi Arabia and the US.
The growth of AI and other technology has complicated the nuclear deterrence debate
- Meanwhile, the rise of AI and robotic weapons is generating questions about the dangers of automating nuclear decision-making and its consequences for strategic stability between the major powers.
- Earlier this month, Washington urged China and Russia to match declarations by the US that only humans, and not algorithms, would be allowed to make decisions on deployment and use of nuclear weapons.
- There are growing concerns in the US that Russia plans to deploy anti-satellite nuclear weapons to undermine Washington’s dominance in outer space.
- Last month, Russia vetoed a US-Japan resolution calling for the prevention of an arms race in space; China abstained.
Indian political debate is stuck on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons
- The question of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and their impact on India’s security is a serious one.
- Since Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons in the late 1980s, Delhi has struggled to deter Rawalpindi from pursuing cross-border terrorism under the shadow of the atomic gun.
- During the last decade, the Modi government sought to limit Pakistan’s atomic impunity and expand India’s options to enhance deterrence.
- To be sure, there has been some success, but few would claim that the problem of deterring Pakistan’s terrorism has been fixed for good.
For Pakistan, more nuclear weapons will counterbalance India’s conventional power gap
- Equally unwise is the temptation to dismiss Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
- As Pakistan’s comprehensive national power declines in relation to India’s, Delhi must expect that Rawalpindi will double down on its nuclear weapon programme as the final insurance against the much-feared “Indian hegemony” in the region.
- Delhi’s current rhetoric on taking back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir might well reinforce Rawalpindi’s determination to strengthen its nuclear arsenal.
- Rawalpindi has long had a focused nuclear weapons programme and a definite edge over India in terms of the size and sophistication of its arsenal.
- Pakistan’s continuing strategic partnership with China suggests room for sustaining that edge against India.
China’s growing stockpile of nuclear weapons are concern for Delhi
- While Pakistan’s nuclear challenge continues to simmer, China’s atomic challenge continues to mount.
- After decades of keeping its nuclear arsenal to a modest size, Beijing is now in the middle of expanding it.
- According to some Western estimates, China is on track to have an arsenal of 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
- A leading Chinese scholar on nuclear issues, Tsinghua University’s Tong Zhao, argues that Xi Jinping sees the expanded nuclear arsenal as more than a deterrent against the US.
- For the Chinese leader, a more powerful arsenal is about ensuring an effective balance of power against the US and underwriting Beijing’s geopolitical leverage.
- Beijing will bet that its growing nuclear arsenal will counter Washington’s balancing strategies in Asia.
Building deterrence against China’s nuclear arsenal should be national priority for Delhi
- If China remains India’s principal security challenge, building deterrent capability against Beijing’s expanding nuclear arsenal should be a national priority.
- This would involve a more purposeful programme to build nuclear and missile capabilities and not just “technology demonstrators” and “symbolic capabilities” that have dominated India’s deterrence.
- Renewed geopolitical rivalry between major powers is bringing nuclear weapons back to the centre stage of global security politics.
- Rapid technological developments and new ways of fighting wars demand the modification of traditional ideas of nuclear deterrence.
Priority for next government
- The next government in Delhi must order a comprehensive review of the changing global nuclear dynamic and regional atomic challenges, and find ways to modernise India’s atomic arsenal and doctrine.
- The review must also explore ways to accelerate India’s civilian nuclear energy programme.
- Although India was the first Asian country to build an atomic power plant back in 1969, it has fallen way behind China and South Korea.
- To catch up, India will need an overhaul of the legal and institutional frameworks governing India’s atomic energy development.
Conclusion: The Indian election debate is struck to Pakistan’s nuclear question. The need is to expand the nuclear deterrence debate. The global nuclear dynamics is rapidly changing and it is in this rapidly changing dynamics India needs to relook its nuclear policy.
Editorial 2 : The heat stress
Introduction: Even as large parts of the country swelter in a brutally hot summer, with prolonged heat waves, a recently published report shows that rising temperatures is not the sole contributing factor to the heat stress being experienced in urban India.
Findings of Centre for Science and Environment report
- According to a report by the Centre for Science and Environment, the extreme discomfort of the summer months in Chennai, Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkata and Hyderabad over the last two decades is caused by a combination of air temperature, land surface temperature and relative humidity, as well as a rapid increase in built-up areas and concretisation.
- It poses a grave risk to lives, especially among vulnerable groups like the elderly, babies, pregnant women, those who live in slums and work outdoors.
Findings on heat stress in urban region
- This is the third straight year of severe heat waves in India, which have been far longer — over 10 days-long — this time than the usual four to eight days.
- Thanks to climate change, temperatures have shot up, as has humidity.
- But, as the CSE report points out, the effect of this — the moisture in the air keeps sweat from evaporating fast enough, making it seem even hotter than it actually is — is compounded by other factors, including changes in land use and the growing urban sprawl.
- This has resulted in the “urban heat island effect”: The trapping of heat due to a dense concentration of buildings, paved roads and other surfaces made of materials like concrete, glass and steel, results in higher temperatures in city centres than in the outlying areas.
- One alarming consequence of this is that summer nights now offer little respite from the searing heat of the day, with cities across climatic zones not cooling down at the rate they once did.
- This is a serious cause for concern as the heat stress continues to build, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and even death.
There is a need for heat action plans (HAP)
- All these factors would need to be taken into consideration for relief measures to be effective.
- While more than 20 states have worked with the NDMA to create heat action plans (HAP), most remain on paper.
- They are hampered by a lack of funding, granularity and a sustainable vision for transformation.
- There is a growing consensus among experts that city-specific management plans, which take into account local factors, are a far more effective response to heat waves.
- Such plans should prioritise green spaces and water bodies and target all heat generators, including vehicles, industries and concrete surfaces — an example is which offers an affordable solution for the urban heat island effect.
Heat Waves Action Plan
- Adverse Impacts and Disaster Management
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- Need for robust disaster adaptation strategies and management policies in heatwave zones.
- Importance of a long-term action plan to safeguard human lives, livestock, and wildlife.
- Implementation of the Sendai Framework
- Effective implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-30.
- State leadership and shared responsibility with stakeholders.
- Public Awareness and Early Warning Systems
- Disseminate public awareness through various media.
- Provide heat-proof shelters, access to drinking water, and afforestation programs.
- Install improved early warning systems to communicate heatwave threats and preventative measures.
- Climate Action Plans
- Implement the National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) for inclusive growth and ecological sustainability.
- Utilize nature-based solutions for ethical climate change mitigation and intergenerational justice.
- Recognition of Heat Waves as a Natural Disaster
- Advocate for heat waves to be recognized as a major disaster.
- Enhance public awareness on self-care during heat waves.
- Develop regional heatwave action plans with clear guidelines on school closures and outdoor activities.
- Sustainable Cooling
- Promote passive cooling technology for naturally ventilated buildings.
- Adapt ancient Indian building designs for modern facilities to combat urban heat islands.
- Replacing Dark Roofs
- Replace dark roofs, roads, and parking lots with lighter, more reflective materials for a cooler environment.
Conclusion: Climate change has led to a rise in temperature and humidity, but the growing urban sprawl has also played a role in heating Indian cities. Along with emergency steps to be implemented during a heat event, long-term planning can keep cities from heating up excessively and save lives.