Editorial 1 : Everywhere the Same Smog
Context: Delhi’s pollution crisis is not just an India problem
Introduction: Delhi’s air quality reached severe plus levels, with pollution readings up to 50 times higher than the World Health Organisation’s safe limit. Humans are being exposed to sustained levels of pollution like never before and science is demonstrating what breathing such toxic air is doing to our biology.
Implications of Air Pollution
- The air pollution smothering the whole of north India has profound implications for the nation.
- Mortality: Air pollution is a leading risk factor for premature mortality and is estimated to cause two million deaths each year in India alone. It increases the risk of long-term conditions, from impairing brain development to lung and heart diseases.
- SDGs: Pollution will derail our efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Causes of Air Pollution Disaster
- It is essentially a man-made disaster.
- Industrial and vehicular emissions
- Agricultural waste burning
- Use of coal and firewood use for cooking and heating
- Cooling of air in winter traps these pollutants close to the ground.
Policies in Place
- Enabling LPG for all households.
- Enforcing regulations on the building industry.
- Massively cutting down on fossil-fuel energy.
- Transitioning New Delhi public buses from diesel to CNG.
- But year after year of high pollution levels reflect that these measures and policies are highly inadequate.
The Issue is Not Local
- It is assumed that air pollution, and other environmental challenges like depletion of water resources and climate change, are purely local issues.
- Focus is more on Delhi but the toxic smog is engulfing an entire swathe of the Subcontinent, affecting half a billion people living in the shadows of the Himalayas, from the plains of the Punjab in Pakistan through the entire sweep of India’s northern states into Bangladesh.
- Air pollution is a shared challenge of the entire Subcontinent and tackling it offers a unique opportunity to build bridges across the troubled waters between South Asian neighbours.
Potential Solution
- Governments in South Asia must set aside the historic conflicts and work in tandem to rapidly address the most alarming challenge to the health and development of the entire region.
- Cooperation: Without cross-border and, within India, cross-state, solidarity, any effort to navigate this calamity will always be swimming against the current.
Way Forward: By focusing on a shared concern with no historical baggage, may turn out to be an opportunity to build trust among neighbours, setting the stage to tackle the other geopolitical issues in a mutually respectful way.
Editorial 2 : The Slowdown
Context: Narrowed choices for RBI amid low growth.
Introduction: Economic growth momentum in the country slowed down sharply in the second quarter.
Signs of Distress
- Softness and moderation in urban demand.
- Shrinking middle class segment.
- The economy grew at just 5.4% in the second quarter, down from 6.7% in the first quarter.
- In nominal terms, the Indian economy has now grown at 8.9% in the first half of this financial year.
Performance of Various Sectors
- The mining sector has contracted.
- Manufacturing has grown at a mere 2.2%, down from 7% in the previous quarter.
- The construction sector has slowed down, as have the electricity, gas and water supply segments.
- Large parts of the services sector such as financial, real estate and professional services have registered slower growth.
- Both investment activity and private demand have moderated.
- Private demand in urban areas is possibly weighed down by a combination of high food inflation and subdued real wage growth.
Hope for Second Half of 2024-25
- There is a view that the economic momentum will pick up in the second half of the year.
- Rural Demand: Rural demand is likely to improve as the kharif output has been healthy and the outlook for the rabi crop also looks promising.
- Government Capex: Government capex is likely to grow at a healthy pace in order to meet its budget target.
RBI’s Dilemma: Growth vs Inflation
- In October’s monetary policy committee meeting, the RBI had projected growth at 7% in the second quarter, and at 7.2% for the full year.
- Considering that actual growth is 1.4 percentage points lower, it implies that the central bank will now have to revise downwards its growth forecast for the year.
- So far, resilient growth had provided the monetary policy committee the space to focus on inflation, keeping policy rates restrictive.
- With slowing growth and elevated inflation, the options and policy choices before the RBI seem to be narrowing.